The end of the "Century of Humiliation"

In 1904, The Judge magazine published a cartoon entitled "The New Square-Deal Deck," in which Theodore Roosevelt says, "Come, gentlemen; it is time to lay aside that worn-out deck of cards and try one that will give you both a fair chance." The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 was repeatedly extended, causing anger in the Chinese government and among Chinese abroad. The drawing shows a Chinese and Uncle Sam taking turns playing their political cards - neither side willing to concede.

This past week, all the attention was focused where Trump likes it: on Trump. Tariffs flew hot and cold. General discourse eased a bit yesterday, resulting in a small rally. On Chinese imports to the US, however, they will soon rise to 125%. Not just on electric cars, but on just about everything. From steel to batteries, industrial machinery to children's toys. As if Chinese economic progress is a form of aggression toward US.

Just as we look back on the Belle Epoque, China in its modern history looks back on the "Century of Humiliation." China remembers the humiliation from 1839 to 1949 not as past, but as existence. What we consider a historical chapter - the opium wars, treaty ports, foreign occupations, is for China the foundation of a national narrative. It appears extensively in textbooks, as well as in movies and popular culture. The century when the "Middle Kingdom," which saw itself as the center of civilization, was broken open, plundered and kept small by foreign powers.

Since then, everything has been in function of recovery.

Not just restoration of power, but of dignity.

China has built the economy the U.S. so craves under Trump: hypercompetitive, cutthroatly efficient, strategically planned. With millions of small businesses, lower government spending than the US, a dominant manufacturing industry, and a population that works hard, protests little, and digitizes everything.

Ironically, China also has the political system that some American leaders seem to envy: a central figure who can bend the judiciary to his will, control the media, marginalize the opposition, and establish "order" without much obstruction.

Trump wanted to make America "great," but China is already there - albeit in their way.

The tariffs on China are not an expression of American dominance. They are a form of American panic. They come not because China is lagging behind, but rather because it is ahead. In industrial capacity, in exports, in infrastructure, in technology. China today sets the price of batteries, the standards for EVs, the capacity of steel, the global flow of rare earths.

The US is responding defensively. With laws and tariffs. Not to overtake China, not by challenging it, but by complaining about the unfair world and shielding itself.

And Xi? Who will not give in. Not because he is intransigent, but because giving in feels like a return to 1842. That is unthinkable.

We may have to accept that the "Century of Humiliation" did not end in 1949, with the founding of the People's Republic. But only now - with the undeniable evidence that China no longer needs to prove itself.

The world order did not change with a bang. It changed with a 125% tariff increase, a deep-seek moment and a Chinese leader who no longer has to listen to the West.

Will the U.S. win this trade war? Since 1978, China has been playing a long-term game, founded on planning, strategy and sustained commitment. Today it is reaping the fruits of forty years of thoughtful and consistent policy. The only one who has not yet realized that the U.S. needs China more than China needs the U.S. is Trump and his administration.

Author: Wouter Verlinden